Tensions Escalate as Both Sides Aim for Strategic Strikes Against Key Infrastructure
The already devastating conflict in Ukraine took an even darker turn this week as Russia unleashed a barrage of missile strikes against power plants across the country, triggering widespread blackouts. In a daring counter-move, Ukraine struck back by targeting oil refineries deep inside Russia with drone attacks.
The dueling infrastructure attacks significantly escalated the risks to civilians in the 14-month-old war, marking a new phase of heightened brutality from both sides. It also foreshadowed more potential suffering ahead as Russia and Ukraine attempt to deprive each other of crucial energy supplies as summer approaches.
Russia’s missile barrage against Ukraine’s electrical grid began around 2 am local time on Monday, with explosions reported in multiple cities amid incoming missile strikes and air raid sirens blaring across the country.
The highest concentration appeared to be in the capital Kyiv and surrounding areas, where Ukrainian air defenses battled a relentless wave of cruise and hypersonic missiles. Debris rained down on civilian areas, damaging homes and buildings.
When the smoke cleared, Ukraine’s national energy company reported that half of the Kyiv region’s supply of electricity had been knocked out by targeted attacks on key power facilities.
The strikes caused partial blackouts in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr and several other areas, affecting millions of Ukrainians. Authorities rushed to implement emergency rolling blackouts to reduce strain on the crippled power grid.
“Russia is using missile terrorism to try and demoralize Ukraine, but even total blackout will not break our will,” said Olena Roth, who was forced to flee her Kyiv apartment with her young daughter during the barrage. “We will keep fighting in the light or the dark.”
Ukraine’s energy minister reported that the wave of strikes, which continued sporadically over several days, had knocked out over one-quarter of the country’s power generating capacity across both nuclear and traditional power plants.
Russia’s defense ministry confirmed it had launched “a massive strike with high-precision weapons” targeting multiple energy facilities across Ukraine. The rationale, according to a statement, was to further erode Ukraine’s ability to power its military operations against Russian forces.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of adding “terrorist tactics” to his military campaign by “deliberately striking civilian sites and trying to create as many human emergencies as possible.“
However, Russia denied targeting civilians, saying the strikes were carefully coordinated against “military command and energy systems.” Though, as with past Russian claims, there was scant evidence to support that assertion.
In a punishing response, Ukraine unleashed its own strategic strikes beginning Thursday by targeting two major oil refineries in Russia with uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks.
Massive clouds of black smoke could be seen billowing over the historic Russian city of Rostov-on-Don near the Ukrainian border after a UAV strike reportedly damaged parts of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery. A second reported strike occurred at the Ilsky refinery in the Krasnodar region.
Russia’s energy ministry said both refineries had temporarily suspended operations, though sought to downplay the impact as “insignificant damage.”
Ukraine did not directly claim responsibility for the audacious attacks, but senior officials made thinly-veiled acknowledgements of the strikes as payback for Russia’s relentless attacks on energy infrastructure.
“Ukraine is simply using the tactics that Russia has employed for over a year,” said Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office, in a post on Telegram. “If they are stressed by just a couple of strikes on Russian refineries, just imagine what we have to go through on a daily basis.”
Oleksiy Danilov of Ukraine’s national security council called them “God’s punishment for all of Russia’s burnings and massacres,” referring to the refinery attacks.
While American-made long-range precision artillery and rocket systems have allowed Ukraine’s forces to strike deeper into Russian-occupied areas, the drone strikes appeared to be an escalation in reach for Kyiv. The two refineries struck are located around 500km (300 miles) from the nearest conflict areas.
Drone warfare analysts noted Ukrainian forces have increasingly turned to unmanned aerial vehicles for strategic strikes, making use of repurposed commercial technology coupled with improvised grenade-style munitions. However, the source and range capabilities of the UAVs used in the refinery attacks remains unclear.
Regardless, the strikes created scenes of havoc and uncertainty around major industrial facilities responsible for an estimated 7.5% of Russia’s refined oil production. That fact potentially raised the stakes for future attacks that could threaten key nodes of Russia’s oil export economy.
Energy analysts noted the attacks could have psychological as well as economic impacts on Russia. “The refinery strikes were a warning from Ukraine – that nowhere is safe and that Russia’s oil production capabilities are vulnerable to disruptions,” said Emily Holland, an energy security expert at the American Petroleum Institute.
On the ground, intense battles raged across multiple fronts in eastern and southern Ukraine with no clear momentum as the war’s 15th month began. American officials said Ukraine had successfully slowed Russia’s much-anticipated offensive in the Donbas region, but cautioned that bloody fighting looked set to drag on.
Yet, the explosions far from the front lines targeting power plants, oil refineries and other civilian sites marked a troubling new chapter that spread the war’s devastation more indiscriminately.
Both Russia and Ukraine insisted their infrastructure targeting was militarily necessary, even as the risks of extended blackouts, fires and supply shortages for civilians grew in the escalating reprisals.
“Ukraine has a right to self-defense and to target ammunition depots, logistics routes, and Russian energy infrastructure that powers Russia’s war machine,” said a US State Department spokesperson.
Russia in turn accused Ukraine of “senseless attacks against civilian targets” and having “no regard for endangering the lives of Russia’s people and risks of environmental catastrophe.”
The mutual recriminations and lack of any accountability, however, seemed to make a horrifying new normal of attacks against each other’s strategic assets more accepted on both sides.
As darkness fell across swaths of Ukraine without power and flames lit up the skies over Russian oil towns, the war scars spread in what could be a grim preview of further escalation targeting the civilian heartlands of both nations.
